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Slow Jobs Recovery in Major US Metros Drags on Long-Term Tax Growth

Fitch Ratings-New York-28 October 2020: The majority of major metropolitan areas with the most severe peak-to-trough employment losses during February–April have struggled to recover jobs, says Fitch Ratings. None of the 54 major metros – those with a population of around one million or more – have recovered more than 70% of jobs lost during the height of the pandemic. With a rise in coronavirus cases and a slower economic recovery expected in 4Q20, employment rates in these metros are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels in the medium term.

Job losses may affect the long-term tax revenue growth prospects and squeeze budgets, although most municipalities have headroom to manage budget gaps at current rating levels. However, the risk of a return to economic contraction consistent with Fitch’s coronavirus downside scenario could compound revenue declines and pressure local governments’ financial resilience. Lagging employment growth or fresh declines could challenge the ability of cities and municipalities to manage through the crisis.

The New York and Las Vegas metro areas saw significant peak-to-trough jobs declines of 20.3% and 23.7% and recoveries of 37% and 48%, respectively, resulting in the largest difference between major metros jobs levels in February compared with August. The other major metros with the largest jobs gaps, meaning less than 90% of February levels, are Rochester, NY; New Orleans; San Francisco; Boston; Detroit; Cleveland; Los Angeles; and Raleigh, NC. Read more via FitchRatings

Pemo Theodore

Pemo Theodore is a Media Publisher and a great people connector. She was Founder Silicon Valley TV which has served the San Francisco Bay Area for 10 years! She has produced Silicon Valley Events for Investors & Startups for 10 years. Pemo loves to video interview venture capitalists & founders to engage the human behind the success stories.. She has been Executive Producer of FinTech Silicon Valley for 6 years, organizing twice monthly FinTech talks & panels in San Francisco & Palo Alto and audio podcasts. She believes in learning through a great discussion with experts in the domains. Pemo has a talent to bring the right people together and is an incredible networker. Pemo's events have been seen as supporting Venture Capitalists & Angels in sourcing great deal flow from startups who attend her events. Many founders have received funding through meeting investors at her events. Her favored medium is audio & visual media and she has built up a great body of work of videos of panels & interviews and podcasts in Silicon Valley startup ecosystem. She has lived & worked in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, London, Northern Ireland & Silicon Valley. Bio

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